Stock Research : Yash HighVoltage ⚡️
- Anirudh Gupta
- 1 day ago
- 7 min read
I love picks & shovels businesses. The ones that supply essential stuff in the middle of a Gold-rush.
Specially the ones that have a heavy moat, fantastic management, and feed into sunrise sectors.
These are the companies that power the growth of our economy from behind the scenes.
I've been getting more and more interested in the refurbishment and expansion of our global (& Indian) electric grid.
All electrification relies on Transformers.
And all transformers rely on the safety-equipment of 'Bushings'.
Yash HighVoltage is one of ~13 companies in the World, making these transformer bushings.
And I believe it's a hidden-in-plain-sight economic engine, with it's real value yet to be discovered by institutional investors.
Here's why:
Disclaimer : 'AniGup', 'AniGup Labs' or 'AniGup Capital 'are not SEBI-registered. This is educational/hobby research only. Not investment advice. Invest at your own risk.
Yash HighVoltage Ltd — Deep Dive
Sector: Transformer components (condenser graded bushings)
Horizon: 2–3 years
Intent: High-conviction evaluation
Date: 9th Jan 2026
Why this memo exists :
I want to understand whether Yash HighVoltage can become a true compounding multibagger over 2–3 years, while stress-testing:
Working capital (debtors/inventory/CCC)
Capex execution (new plant + qualification)
Cash conversion (PAT vs CFO)
Governance + disclosure quality
Cycle risk + competition
Snapshot :
✅ One-line thesis (what may be hiding in plain sight)
If bushings stay supply-constrained, approvals remain sticky, and Yash executes exports + the new plant without blowing up working capital, profits can scale faster than revenue — and the market can re-rate it.
✅ The 3-year question
Can Yash shift from a trusted India supplier into a repeatable global supplier (agents + US office + Europe traction) while keeping cash conversion healthy?
What must be true :
New facility stays on timeline (type tests → approvals → commercial ramp)
Debtor days and inventory days don’t spiral
Export share rises without quality incidents
No unpleasant governance / related-party surprises
Kill-switches (exit triggers) :
CFO/PAT stays < 0.6 for multiple quarters
Debtor days trend > 90 with no clear explanation
Any major failure incident / recall / blacklisting / safety event
Plant delays + cost overruns + weak order traction
Table of Contents :
Business model (ELI10)
Product anatomy (why condenser grading matters)
Industry tailwinds
Moat: approvals + trust + time
Company deep dive: products + roadmap
Go-to-market: exports + agents + retrofit
Management commentary: what to believe / verify
Financials: growth + margins + ROCE
Working capital: the boss fight
Signature: PAT vs CFO (+ next 4 quarters)
Peers + valuation sanity checks
Violent rerating roadmap (milestones)
Bull vs Bear + sensitivity
Risks + quarterly checklist + disclaimer
1) Business model ELI10 ~ Explain it Like I'm 10 :
What is a bushing?
A transformer is like a heart in the power system.
A bushing is the safe tunnel that lets high-voltage current enter/exit that transformer through the wall, without causing fire/flashover.
ELI10 takeaway :
Transformer = heart
Bushing = gateway to the heart
If gateway fails → transformer/grid reliability can fail
That’s why bushing supply is a trust business, not just a manufacturing business
2) Product anatomy (why “condenser graded” is hard) :
Condenser graded bushings have layered foil + insulation that spreads voltage stress evenly.
That reduces hot-spots and flashover risk — but makes manufacturing + testing far harder.
Why there are so few players :
Failure risk is catastrophic → utilities/OEMs are cautious
Qualification takes years (pilot installs + field performance)
Precision manufacturing + clean processes + testing repeatability
After-sales + retrofit capability is an underrated moat
3) Industry tailwinds :
Transformer demand is being driven by:
Renewables buildout
Grid modernization
Data centers
Electrification / EV infra
Replacement of aging infrastructure
When transformer makers are full, component suppliers often become the bottleneck.
Management claim to pressure-test :
Mgmt believes transformer demand has 10-year visibility; bushing suppliers have 15–17-year visibility (fewer suppliers + replacement market).
Hiding in plain sight (industry lens) :
Bottlenecks can get pricing power + steady orders
Retrofit/replacement smooths cyclicality
Lead times are a real-time “tightness” signal
4) Moat = approvals + trust + time :
This is key: the moat is not machines, it’s time in the field.
Mgmt indicates it can take 6–8 years for a new entrant to build repeat trust because customers watch performance before giving volumes.
What to verify (due diligence) :
Which utilities/OEMs approved Yash for which voltage classes?
Repeat orders vs one-off retrofit orders?
Any product incidents / failures / penalties?
5) Yash HighVoltage deep dive (products + roadmap) :
Product set (simplified)
OIP condenser bushings: 24kV to 245kV (IEC) + variants for US/Europe standards
High current bushings for generation
RIP/RIS bushings: assembling today, moving to indigenous capability via new plant
New plant milestones (as per management talk) :
Building completion and equipment arrival in phases
Prototypes + type tests around Q3 CY26
Commercial availability around Q4 CY26
Plant designed for up to 550kV capability (eventual)
Why this matters:
If Yash can localize key parts + move up voltage classes, margins can expand and lead-time dependence on imports can reduce.
6) Go-to-market (exports + agents + retrofit) :
From management commentary:
40,000+ products shipped
60+ countries
30+ agents
US sales/marketing presence building
Agent network: pro + con
Pros
local presence, faster response, easier trials
Risks
channel dependence
inconsistent messaging
credit risk via intermediaries
Watch: export growth must NOT come with a receivables explosion.
Retrofit engine (underrated)
A real edge if true:
ability to retrofit legacy/discontinued models
even when drawings/specs aren’t available
can measure on-site and custom-build
This creates a replacement/repair revenue stream even if new builds slow.
7) Management commentary — what changes the model :
MD interview : 5 statements that matter
Bushings can be 4–8% of transformer cost (sometimes higher)
7 bushings per power transformer (LV + HV + neutral/tertiary)
Transformer cycle visibility ~10 years; bushing visibility 15–17 years
New plant + existing can potentially create large revenue capacity (claim)
Localization + exports can expand margins (duty + air freight saved; better export pricing)
Skeptic checklist :
Are “capacity/revenue potentials” backed by orders/LOIs/contracts?
Do we see margin expansion in gross margin as localization ramps?
Are debtors/inventory rising faster than sales?
Berlin : signals of positioning
“One-stop shop” across IEC / IEEE / Europe variants
Design flexibility (European short-tail variants)
Lead times: ~16–20 weeks for standard OIP
Capacity upgrade claim: ~10–12k units/year capability
Verify on ground :
Dispatch trends match capacity claims
Agent network quality (engineering-capable vs pure sales)
US office conversion: inquiries → orders → repeat orders
8) Financials (growth + quality) @ Yash HighVoltage:
Best compounding pattern:
revenue grows
margins stable/expand
ROCE stays strong
cash conversion holds
Most “story” companies die on #4.
How to interpret :
Stable margins in tight supply can indicate pricing power
ROCE must stay healthy through capex
If ROCE collapses after capex, be careful
9) Working capital (the boss fight) :
Working capital decides whether PAT becomes real cash.
How multibaggers die :
profits rise, but cash doesn’t
receivables and inventory “eat” the balance sheet
a cycle turn causes inventory write-down risk
What to watch quarterly :
debtor days trend vs exports
inventory days trend vs new plant ramp
contract terms: advances/milestones that reduce WC
10) Signature metric: PAT vs CFO
This is the truth serum.
Rule: over a full cycle, CFO should track PAT. If it doesn’t, you’re funding customers or inventory.
Next 4 quarters must show :
CFO/PAT trending toward 0.9–1.1
no fake CFO bumps from temporary WC reversals
clearer disclosure on receivables ageing and export credit terms
11) Cash quality: CFO/PAT ratio
If this stays weak for too long, the multibagger breaks.
Directional CFO/PAT examples
FY20 ≈ 1.00
FY21 ≈ 1.75
FY22 ≈ 0.78
FY23 ≈ 0.82
FY24 ≈ 1.17
FY25 ≈ 0.43
Net cash earnings lens
Ask: if PAT is ₹X, how much “net cash earnings” is left after maintenance capex?
Capex years can show negative net cash — acceptable only if post-capex ROCE stays strong.
Red flags :
PAT up, CFO flat
other current assets/advances jump with no clarity
receivables grow faster than sales for >2 quarters
12) Peers + valuation sanity checks :
Direct bushing comps are rare, so use broader T&D/electrical players carefully.
Peer takeaways
Premium multiples usually come from:
cash conversion + governance
repeatable exports
consistent qualityIf Yash nails these, re-rating becomes possible.
13) Violent rerating roadmap (milestones) for Yash HighVoltage :
Credibility (Now → CY25)
clear plant milestones + capex progress
better disclosure (approvals, lead times, export share, receivables ageing)
no quality incidents
Delivery (CY26)
Q3 CY26: prototypes + type tests (management target)
Q4 CY26: commercial availability begins
exports win repeat orders
Repeatability (CY27)
new plant stabilizes
mix improves; margins expand modestly
working capital normalizes
Cash (always)
show free cash flow after capex cycle
if cash conversion improves, valuation can “snap” higher
14) Bull vs Bear :
Bull case (needs execution)
transformer cycle stays tight
approvals keep supply limited
plant executes on time
export mix rises
cash conversion improves
Bear case (how it fails)
cycle cools OR competitors add capacity faster
plant delays, approvals push out revenue
cost overruns + working capital balloon
CFO weak → balance sheet tightens
Risks + Kill-switches + Quarterly checklist for Yash HighVoltage
Risks :
working capital trap
quality incident / trust damage
capex execution delays / overruns
customer concentration
governance / disclosure surprises
export credit/warranty/geopolitical/tariff shocks
Quarterly checklist :
Track every quarter:
growth + order commentary + lead times
debtor days / inventory days / CCC
CFO vs PAT + CFO/PAT
capex milestones + commissioning updates
export share + new approvals
warranty provisions / quality incidents
net debt/EBITDA (avoid leverage spike)
Disclaimer : This document is for educational and informational purposes only and represents hobby research. AniGup Capital is not registered as a SEBI Registered Investment Adviser (RIA) or Research Analyst (RA). Nothing in this document constitutes investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. All investments carry risk, including loss of capital. Please do your own research and consult a SEBI-registered professional before making decisions. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned.
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