Assumptions x Insights x Evidence
We're builders, and in looking for what to build, we often get carried away with our own bias'. Going down rabbit holes that feed curiosity, but gradually get less rewarding to be in.
Over time, i've found three emergent signals that inevitably help channel conviction about what to build, and how to refine things.
Assumptions : the things we think the market may want, who the customer may be, where they may be found, what the timing for it may be, and why we're best suited to serve them. e.g. our personal opinions & contrarian beliefs
Insights - the things our primary & secondary research show us about what the market is saying, the unseen value hiding in plain sight that we may have missed. e.g. consultant reports; Claude research; survey forms; customer discovery calls
Evidence - the things that signal real action from someone, backed up by data that signals obvious truth. e.g. a Purchase Order; someone skipping the pilot or demo and breaking the process to adopt your product; moving with speed
That rariefied space where the three intersect ... we should strive to live there as builders. And then build only that. Everything else is cute noise.
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